How useful are the Polls?

1 05 2012

Well, from what I hear from Jay Severin, the polls are of limited use if they follow any of the following criteria, and this is a list of points from his show.

  1. The people polled are anything but “Likely Voters” who are both “Registered” and have voted in the previous few elections.  Likely voters are likely to, you know, VOTE.
  2. If they are “National” Polls – We don’t have a national election, otherwise Al Gore would have been president.  We go through FIFTY national elections in a single day, as well as Washington DC.  Each election gives electoral votes to the winner of EACH individual state.  This is how George Bush won the first time in 2000 despite losing the popular vote.
  3. If they are from the “Big Three”, NBC, CBS and ABC.  They are usually heavily slanted toward the Democrats.

Conversely, a poll of likely voters from a key state hold much more sway than a national poll.

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